“Hard times create strong men; strong men create good times; good times create weak men; and weak men create hard times.” G. Michael Hopf It’s interesting to cast our minds back to the launch of the US Fed’s initial “QE1” in December 2008, just after the TARP (Troubled Asset Relief Program) ran out. We wrote […]
As January washes up and the old, “as January goes so does the year” rolls out, let’s see if we can share some themes we think worth following for 2024. Starting with a World Economic Forum (WEF) Davos version of risk, courtesy of the WEF annual survey, based on a survey of 1,490 “leaders” – leaders […]
What a difference 2 weeks makes. Investors did not even bother to stop and consider why the US Fed policy makers made such an aggressive policy pivot last week, they just bought all the things. It’s not like the US Fed had an alarming set of inflation or job numbers, consumer sentiment is fine (according […]
Looks like it’s going to be another rough week for equity markets on the back of continued escalation in the middle East. Not sure what’s happening in Ukraine though, can someone tell us if things have wound up in Ukraine recently, news seems hard to come by. And what about the last $100B of “packages” […]
There was an important theme laid out by Herbert Hoover(1874-1964) back in the 1930’s. There are only 3 ways to meet the unpaid bills/promises of a nation. The first is taxation. The second is repudiation. The third is inflation. What do you think the current crop of Western global leaders think of this thesis? Invest accordingly. […]
“Chase after money and security and your heart will never unclench. Care about other people’s approval and you will be their prisoner. Do your work, then step back. The only path to serenity.” – Lao Tzu Serious disclaimer upfront: personal serenity, peace between the ears and any existing meditative state maintenance is your own responsibility […]
Right now, investors are correct in feeling the economic sands moving beneath their feet. After 14 long years of kicking the can down the road, Western bureaucrats are out of road and have moved to sand – deep sand. Times are changing rapidly. Investors would be wise to assess their allocation of scarce investment resources accordingly. […]
Back in early January (seems like a long time ago) we penned a view https://aurumecho.com/from-dusk-to-dawn/ that decisions have been made in the non-Western alliance world to move away from the US dollar as the default trade currency in favour of more local “flavours”. Since then, even we’ve been stunned with the pace of change, not that you […]
For investors, 2022 will be looked back upon as a year goldilock investors were chomped by bears. In a rare feat, the good ol 60/40 bond/equity balanced “goldilocks” portfolio had one of its worst performances ever. The Australian equity component fared a little better than international counterparts thanks to strength in energy and commodity stocks. […]
For the time being, if you hadn’t noticed, the 0% interest rate world where money just fell from the sky is over. 14 years of whatever it takes, an era that forced investors to take on more and more risk to achieve some yield or capital gain via speculation is starting to blow back. At […]
Near on three weeks ago the first we witnessed the first major Central Bank policy “pivot” from the Bank of England as it changed its fiscal rhetoric from tightening to “accommodative”, within 24 hours as UK Pension Funds started panic selling Bonds to meet Margin Calls (very 2007). Global Markets were in freefall and desperately […]
“Democratic leaders will realize that they are only easily supported when there is a war that the people can rally behind. And so the democratic leaders will unnecessarily become involved in violent affairs, creating wars to distract the people. To ensure their power, the leaders will create laws to bolster their position. The rulers will impose […]
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